What is multiple systems estimation?

Multiple systems estimation, or capture-recapture, is a technique that uses two separately collected but incomplete lists of a population to estimate the total population size. HRDAG uses the multiple systems estimation technique in human rights cases to project the total number of violations, including those that were never documented. This information is vital to producing a complete accurate historical record of the violations and to provide evidence at the trial of the architects of large-scale human rights abuses.

How did multiple systems estimation originate?

The origin of multiple systems estimation is known to date back to at least the late nineteenth century as a technique for counting fish populations. It was later extended to multiple captures for other wildlife and human populations.

How are multiple convenience samples managed?

The following example illustrates three data collection projects:

	First possibility: there is no overlap.
	Second possibility: there is a complete overlap.
	Third possibility (the real one): there is a partial and complex overlap.

How can statistical inferences be made from multiple systems estimation?

In order to make statistical inferences, it is necessary to:

• Identify overlapping reports
• Control for bias and variation in coverage rates
• Estimate the total magnitude

OR

Controlled vocabulary

Human rights data model

Multiple systems estimation

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The Human Rights Data Analysis Group (HRDAG) applies information technology solutions and statistical techniques to help human rights advocates build evidence-based arguments.