Benetech Analyzes Human Rights Data
for the
Liberian Truth and Reconciliation Commission
Posted by Kristen Cibelli, July 22, 2009 8:00 AM
Our team at the Benetech Human
Rights Data Analysis Group (HRDAG) has recently concluded a
three-year project with Liberian Truth and Reconciliation Commission
to help clarify Liberia's violent history.
I managed the project in which we analyzed more than
17,000 victim and witness statements collected by the Truth and
Reconciliation Commission (TRC) in Liberia and compiled the data
into a report entitled "Descriptive
Statistics From Statements to the Liberian Truth and Reconciliation
Commission." The HRDAG analysis is included as an annex to the
TRC's Final Report
released on July 1 in Monrovia, Liberia. The TRC's report has been
covered in the press, but the media coverage has largely overlooked
the broader role of the TRC in Liberia and the larger purpose of
truth commissions around the world.
Press stories about the Liberian TRC report have not
focused primarily on the content in the report, but on the Commission's
controversial recommendation to ban Liberian President Ellen Johnson
Sirleaf from holding future political office. Understandably, this
issue has become quite controversial in reports throughout the media,
including the blogosphere. But since so many years of work have
gone into the TRC's report, it is also useful to reflect on why
there is a need for a truth commission in Liberia and in other counties
around the world. HRDAG has now worked with nine truth commissions
over the past 15 years and we have given this question careful consideration.
More infomation is available in our Truth
Commission FAQs.
In this blog entry, I explain how we analyzed the data
from the Liberian TRC, some reactions to the TRC's final report,
and offer thoughts looking beyond the current public debate to the
broader role and historical value of the TRC's work.
Head office of the TRC in Monrovia, Liberia.
How We Analyzed Data for the Liberian TRC
During our three-year partnership with the TRC, the
HRDAG team provided the statistical expertise to transform information
from the TRC statements into scientifically defensible, quantitative
information. This process was vitally important because it created
a historical record of victims and violations based on the thousands
of statements. This data helped the Commission determine the proportional
responsibility of specific factions and individuals for the most
serious crimes during the TRC's mandate period, 1979 to 2003.
Our work with the TRC and our statistical report was
made possible through the support of United States Department of
State Bureau for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor (DRL) and several
other donors, which are listed in our report.
As manager of the project, I worked with our team to
apply our deep statistical expertise throughout the many stages
of the TRC's efforts. I made numerous visits to the TRC beginning
in 2006 when the Commission was inaugurated. I also had the opportunity
to live in Liberia for six months last year. This gave me an opportunity
to work closely with my TRC colleagues who analyzed the statements
collected in Liberia and more than 1,100 additional statements collected
from diaspora Liberians — Liberians who left the country.
This was a monumental task. Each statement had to be
analyzed carefully to identify the "countable units" &mdash violations,
victims and perpetrators. That information was then transcribed
onto forms — a process known as "coding." Information from
the coding forms for each statement was then entered into a specialized
database. This effort was enormous and the TRC staff rose to challenge;
nearly all of the statements collected in Liberia plus over 1,100
statements collected from diaspora Liberians were coded and entered
into a secure database.
TRC data entry and coding staff.
To put this accomplishment into perspective, it is
helpful to compare it with previous truth commissions. For example,
South Africa's Truth and Reconciliation Commission collected about
21,000 statements, just about 1,000 more than the TRC collected
from Liberians living inside and outside the country. That may sound
comparable - except when one considers that South Africa's population
is nearly fourteen times larger than Liberia's.
The Liberian TRC was also the first to collect statements
from members of the diaspora community — in this case Liberians
living in Ghana, Nigeria, the United States and Europe. Many tens
of thousands of Liberians fled Liberia's borders seeking refuge
in neighboring countries and in the US and Europe during the war.
By the end of 2003 an estimated 297,000 Liberians were living outside
of the country. Not all of the statements from diaspora Liberians,
and those living inside the country, could be coded and entered
for inclusion in the statistical analysis due to resource constraints.
Victim and witness statements collected by the TRC.
Since the scientific accuracy of the data is vital
to the credibility of the TRC report, it is also important to consider
the care that went into coding. When more than one person is working
on coding, it is important to monitor a measurement known as inter-rater
reliability (IRR). IRR measures whether different coders, given
the same source material, produce the same quantitative output (e.g.
the same number of victims and the same number and type of violations).
The coding team in Liberia achieved an overall average of 89% agreement
on coding exercises throughout their work on TRC statements. This
is considered a very high rate of IRR — and ensures that the
information entered into the database is more than the individual
interpretations of each of the coders.
The staff in the Coding and Database Unit remained
dedicated and hardworking in the face of their daunting task and
often less then ideal working conditions. You can read a summary
of the report and more about our methodology
here. I was inspired by the staff's ongoing commitment to processing
as many stories presented to the TRC as possible — as accurately
as possible. They felt that their work was an important service
to the people of Liberia and I feel fortunate to have had the chance
to work with them on this historic task.
Reaction to the TRC Report
The TRC's Final Report has provoked heated debate around
the world, most of which has not centered on the statistical data.
Much of the press coverage of the TRC Final Report &mdash both national
and international — has focused on the TRC's recommendation
regarding President Sirleaf. President Sirleaf was not accused of
having committed any direct human rights abuses, and therefore her
name does not appear in the database of violations compiled by the
TRC. It is extraordinary, however, for a truth commission to make
such a determination about a current sitting head of state and this
decision could have far-reaching consequences for Liberia.
The TRC has called clearly for prosecution of those
the Commission found to be responsible for the most serious crimes.
This decision has inspired much debate about whether or not this
is the right approach for Liberia and if this is the direction in
which Liberians want to go. Clearly this is a choice for Liberians
to make. We are scientists. We do not do not judge the data, we
provide the expertise to gather quantitative data from the statements
and analyze this information.
However, interpreting statistics can be quite complicated.
So it is very important to be clear about what the numbers represent
and what they don't — particularly when they are being used
to support an argument in a sensitive debate. In that light, I would
like to clarify one misunderstanding that has been repeated in the
press. When asked what is needed to bring reconciliation to the
country, 60% of statement-givers to the TRC mentioned, "forgive
and forget" among possible other responses. Some sources in the
press have cited this finding but have incorrectly suggested that
it represents the views of all Liberians.
To clarify, the statistic does not come from a random
population-based survey. Instead, it is drawn from the responses
of statement-givers to an open-ended set of supplemental questions
included in the TRC's statement form. As an analyst, I want to point
out that the statistic represents the views of 17,416 statement-givers
who elected to give a statement. But it does not statistically represent
the views of 3.4 million Liberians as a whole.
It is, however, interesting to note that the majority
of Liberians who gave statements to the TRC embraced forgiveness
despite the fact that they were direct victims or witnesses of atrocities
and face the greatest challenge in forgiving those responsible for
their suffering.
Liberian children.
Looking Beyond Immediate Controversy
My hope is that the current controversy surrounding
the TRC report does not obscure the larger historical truths —
and the voices of more than 18,000 victims and witnesses who gave
the statements that we analyzed. Truth commissions help nations
understand the impact of past policies — and coup d'états
— such as those that occurred in Liberia. We hope that Liberians
and others will study the findings carefully and consider the cost
of violent regime change on the civilian population. Truth commissions
can help direct not just decision makers — but entire nations
— toward greater peace and prosperity. Our hope is that the
collective experiences of those who engaged with the TRC are not
lost in the debate.
For instance, our analysis uncovered important facts
about mass human rights violations in Liberia. Forced displacement
was the most commonly reported violation during the conflict —
comprising about a third of the 163,615 total reported violations.
Statements to the TRC documented more than 28,000 killings, the
second most commonly reported violation. According to the data,
Charles Taylor's group of combatants, the National Patriotic Front
of Liberia (NPFL), was responsible for more than three times the
number of reported violations as the next closest perpetrator group.
Surprisingly, older men were at greater risk for being killed or
subject to looting violations than younger men. In contrast, the
data suggests that young men, particularly teens 15 to 19 were at
the greatest risk for forced recruitment as combatants.
By supporting the effective capture, preservation and
analysis of statements relating to human rights violations, the
TRC has been able to tell a broader truth about Liberia's conflict.
An anonymized version of the TRC's data from statements collected
in Liberia, and among diaspora Liberians, will be published on the
TRC
and HRDAG websites. We encourage
scholars and other analysts to extend the analysis and compare statistical
results from other sources of data with the information reported
by the statement-givers.
Busy street in downtown Monrovia, the capital of Liberia.
The findings in the TRC report offer a new perspective
on the history of Liberia and provide a context for how and why
certain types of violence occurred. Ultimately, this analysis provides
a deeper understanding of the possible causes behind the patterns
of violence. Before people can be forgiven, we must first understand
what they have done. The first step towards reconciliation is the
truth.
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